Live Trading Predictions – Week 1 – July 14 – 18, 2008

Well here it is, my first week’s worth of predictions for my live trading. I have made trades for 4 pairs so far that appear to be fairly clear which way they are going to go this week. On a related note, I’ve begun starting to use a “Confidence” factor to show how strongly I believe a certain prediction is correct. I will be monitoring how well strong predictions compare to weak predictions statistically (win/loss ratio, average win, etc.) If the stronger ones are correct more often, I may start putting more weight into those trades, or only trading them exclusively.

Confidence Legend:
High – All indicators are lining up on all 3 major time periods that I use and things look pretty much perfect.
Normal – Average indication of which way things are going, perhaps indicators are lining up on 2 out of 3 time periods.
Low – Unsure or getting mixed signals.

As you know I am starting with a $4,985 inital deposit. Each of these 4 trades were made with 2.0 lot sizes (so each pip is worth $2) in my mini account:

Trading

EURUSD 1.5940 – Sell. T/P 1.5710
CONFIDENCE: Normal
D- Up/near top
4H- Down/break resistance
15M- Down

USDJPY 106.27 – Sell. T/P 105.5 or 106.00. Doesn’t look like it has much room to go down though without breaking resistance. Rainbow gives mixed signals.
CONFIDENCE: Normal
D- Down
4H- Down for a little longer
15M- Down

USDCAD 1.0068 – Sell. T/P 0.9925. Careful, it could turn upwards any day now.
CONFIDENCE: Normal
D- Down
4H- Down
15M- Down

AUDUSD 0.9682 – Sell. T/P 0.9550. Rainbow backs up sell.
Confidence: Normal
D- Still heading up
4H- Down
15M- Down

Not Currently Trading

These pairs are not showing strong enough indications that I feel comfortable to invest in them, or they may be just on the verge of a trend reversal and I don’t want to trade them yet. They may be potential trades later in the week

USDCHF 1.0165 – Wait and buy later. Rainbow indicates oversold but still going down.
D- Down
4H- Up or continuation down
15M- Mixed

GBPUSD 1.9874 – Mixed. Wait. Rainbow indicates sell.
D- Up
4H- Up
15M- Mixed

*When I mention “rainbow”, I am referring to a chart template I have called “Ingot54 Rainbow” which is basically a series of moving averages for different time periods. I don’t use it to trade, but I respect it’s abilities to find high/low points and the strength of a trend, so I occasionally use it for reassurance. The moving averages on the chart are all different colours so they form a “rainbow” of moving average lines ranging from 2-day to 160-day. If anyone is interested I can give more details or screenshots, if you want to see how cool it looks.

Advertisements

~ by yarcofin on July 13, 2008.

5 Responses to “Live Trading Predictions – Week 1 – July 14 – 18, 2008”

  1. Well, I’ve just begun the long road of learning to trade forex, I have experience with trading the S&P emini, however due to time now need to find a new instrument, hence FOREX. I found your site and am now following your signals. However, I need to know why something is happening could you give me info on your system or point me in a direction as there are way too many out there to pick from in learning FOREX skills. Thanks

  2. Why what is happening? Give me some details about whatever questions you have and I’ll try my best to answer them. If they seem like something other people might want to hear, I might even make it into a blog post tomorrow.
    Thanks

  3. The difference I find in trading forex is the slow movement, I’ve been using a 5 min chart with stochatics, which works well for me day trading and watching the price ladder, however I would like to know your various “MA” settings so I can begin to follow and get a feel for why and what you are basing your decisions on. Thanks

  4. Iono check this post out :
    https://yarcofin.wordpress.com/2008/05/24/everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-forex/
    or
    http://www.babypips.com/school/

    and don’t forget my $ 5,000 counseling fee 😉 xD

  5. Oh, right. I end up posting a link to that every single week, despite it being right on the side menu under “top posts”. I think I need to find a way to put it right at the top of every page, “How I trade”, maybe make a Youtube video actually showing what I do before I trade.

    Slight update while I’m commenting…. my USDJPY trade hit the T/P yesterday so I made $145 so far, but all my positions I currently have open are down like $850 😦

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: