Week 3 – Live Results

Well. First losing week live this week…

-$213.16 (-3.8%)

See results for this week HERE
See all-time stats HERE

If I quit Tuesday I would have been money ahead, but instead I bought some more. At one point this week I was actually up to $5,900 (not including losses being held), now I’m back down to $5,373.36.

AUDUSD screwed me over with a giant $360 loss. It looked like a great buy Tuesday, it still looked like a great buy Wednesday and Thursday, looks even better today. One of the major flaws in my system is that strong reversals look exactly the same as if the pair were extremely oversold/overbought (making it a huge bargain and you’d be stupid not to do the opposite of what is about to come)…. fortunately this is a rather rare occurance.

USDCAD mildly screwed me over with a loss about $150 as well… it just wouldn’t come back down for some reason.

Hopefully this weekend I will be doing a video tutorial of how I make my trades… stay tuned.


~ by yarcofin on August 1, 2008.

22 Responses to “Week 3 – Live Results”

  1. Well, it was bound to happen. And I have had it with BabyPips forum. It is now an incredibly annoying place. I predict that 90% of the current members in there will become financially ruined within 12 months.

  2. I’m seriously considering starting my own full site (lessons, forums, etc) but I would need to either charge a subscription or massively advertise to pay for it.

  3. I love your video tutorials πŸ™‚
    Do you think that you could post a chart showing one of your trades ?
    And Congrats for the 5,000 visitors !

  4. i also got screwed with the audusd, i took it after close on monday, got up a few pips and held it overnight only to find i was screwed by the time i got up the next day. went short afterwards and made some of it back but not much. its well into oversold now but theres no sign of it slowing down on 4h or d1 so im going to go short on it sunday and hope to recover some of my losses.

  5. You may be trading too many pairs. Try picking just 3 to trade. I myself just do EUR/USD and EUR/CHF. And I know many annual 6-figure earners who only trade EUR/USD. Don’t ever buy this nonsense about currency pair diversification. It’s utter myth! You only waste too much time looking at way too many pairs. 2-3 is optimum. Just use money management risk to properly compound your growing balance that’s all.

  6. wouldnt eurusd and eurchf do more or less the same thing? weak dollar = stronger eur so both of those would rise. strong dollar = weaker eur and both would drop? loooking at the charts they are almost mirror images of each other.

  7. Visiting my friend mill and had to agree with him. I read way too many useless stuff on babypips.com from these “master contributors” who got their title from just living on the forum. Yet the stuff they write and think is truly bizarre to really horrible to pass on resembling as advice. Zero usable advice are given. It’s one thing to peddle your free blog but another to peddle your horrid e-book like some are doing on there. But it’s all OK since they are “master contributors” right? Sad truly.

  8. No, actually EUR/USD and EUR/CHF do not mirror one another. USD/CHF actually more closely mirror EUR/USD. Mirror meaning showing negative image of one another, not duplicate movements. Any seemingly duplicate chart is incidental not the rule. You can at any given moment compare charts of other pairs and can see that the movements may be comparable on some days but they are not the same. But all of this over analyzing comes from all these so called gurus who overanalyze stuff but do not make any money trading. So, do not eat up nonsense put out by all of these so called “experts” in FX. All of their analysis are a joke when you try to apply it to actual real world trading. EUR/USD and EUR/CHF are not the same and all of these strong dollar, weak dollar, strong euro analysis are all useless. So my advice is stop eating up BS typed by so called gurus who make money by giving useless advice rather than from trading. Nobody comes into trading believing all of these over-taught useless information; you pick them up by reading pure nonsense written by so called experts. To quote Cramer; they know nothing!

  9. Ya, and trade what you want. Give it a try. Just don’t overtrade and don’t trade too many pairs. Increase your lots as your balance increases. Do not go over 5% risk per trade. Ideally trade 3 different pairs only. Never hedge. Do not use stop/loss & trailing stop. Also, don’t be a courageous buck. Avoid GBP and JPY pairings at all cost. Not worth the risk/reward ratio. Just not worth it. Also commodity pairs are not worth the effort. When all of your trades are open, look for exit points not more entry opportunities. Set simple rules and go for it. Just avoid all of these gurus who make money selling their stuff not trading like my friend said.

  10. Having traded many many pairs at any given time, I would have to agree that none of them behave the same for very long.

    I don’t plan on cutting down my number of trades and increasing lot size though, I’d have to demo it first and see how much larger the risk and drawdown was first.

  11. hmm actually i read it wrong, i meant EURUSD and USDCHF lol. anyway that wasnt from babypips that was an observation based on the daily charts from 2005. they are virtual mirror images though, obviously not exact but very close.

    after reading lots of things about various systems on there and looking a bit more closely at them, it seems most of them are just rubbish and simply do not work, and the ones that DO work provide such a tiny amount of profit that they are hardly worthwhile.

    now ive just taken to just looking at the daily chart (sometimes the 4h to confirm things), stochastic and AC and judging for myself where I think it will go next without any rock solid rules about what to do. whether i will be successful with that or not i guess i will find out this week.

  12. DC, would you consider my system to be one of these systems that is just rubbish or produces a small profit, or do you think I am one of the small exceptions?

    Be honest… I’d like to know what everyone thinks about my system if it’s any good or not. Obviously I had a bad week this week, but like I said that should be quite rare. I won’t delete your comment if you say my system sucks and I’m full of **** πŸ˜›

  13. All of these strong dollar, weak dollar argument only is valid if you are going to enter a position and hold for 12 months or longer. Weak dollar, weak yen, weak whatever argument matters not since most positions are held for no longer than 1-2 days. We are traders right? We make money from the price movement that mostly comes from emotional mood of traders. Do not forget that so do not overdo the technical analysis. Economic conditions do not dictate market movement anymore and no single entity can control that either. It’s mostly traders’ emotions and mood that moves the prices. So another keen idea is to keep your take profit low. I laugh when I see newbies talk about setting trailing stops of 50 with their take profit of 100. Please. Take profit should be much much much lower with no stop/loss and no trailing stop. The ideal way to trade if you want to make real money from trading; not micro/nano lot earnings just spinning your wheels. Condition yourself to take quick profits and reset and look for reentry points. Much better way to trade. Keep your take profit at 10-20 PIPs mark. Take profit settings of 100 only comes from greedy newbies. Not a smart approach.

  14. Yarcofin, gotta go but this thread alone was worth 1000+ posts in babypips. Good luck with your next week’s trades.

  15. your system seems to be able to get decent returns, 5000 to 5900 (if it wasnt for the bad week) would be good enough for me. personally i dont like the idea of getting all 3 trends to match up when the first one could be a few days ago or more, the system might still insist its in a downtrend but it might be on the way back up by the time the 4h and 15 mins line up as well.

    im a newbie so im still working out the best approach. having no stoploss as mill says strikes me as very dangerous. in the last week alone audusd has dropped 500 pips. if you were on the wrong side of that with no stop and just sat there hoping it would eventually reverse then you would be in tears by now, i lost enough on it with my relatively small 50 pip stop.

    also what mill says about not using too much technicals doesnt seem entirely true to me. if most traders use technicals, and its most traders emotions that drive the prices, then a technical showing something as overbought is likely to drive their emotions to push the price back up at the first sign of a reversal, hence the technicals would then effectively be driving the market?

    also having small 10-20 pip take profits is more like scalping to me and you have to sit there infront of the pc all day which 99% of retail traders cannot do even if they wanted to, taking a 20 pip profit and looking for a re-entry point also seems odd, all you do then is pay the spread again and your likely to expect it to keep going in your direction anyway, or you would have taken profit regardless. it seems here you are talking more about money management than looking at market direction, no stop and a 20 pip take profit is no different than a 50 pip trailing stop and a 100 pip take profit if the market goes the wrong way (except no stop means you likely lose MUCH more if it doesnt reverse). personally once i get to around 20 pip profit i tend to move my stop up to break even and let it trail from there.

    of course im not profitable yet, ive made far too many bad trades and im still a newbie so i could be talking rubbish πŸ˜›

  16. In case you didn’t notice above, I WAS in on the of AUDUSD this week, thus I had a losing week. AUDUSD has not dropped anywhere near 500 pips last week though… July 28th was the high point at around 0.9580, now it’s at about 0.9290… that’s only about a *300* pip drop.

    Definately a mixed argument, when I say I don’t use stop-losses, half the people say I’m crazy and the other half applaud my efforts and say stop-losses are take-losses.

    Personally whenever I used stop-losses I got screwed over, so even if AUDUSD did drop 500 pips this week, I would still not use a stop-loss.

  17. yeh i noticed, i mentioned it in my first post above πŸ˜› your right its 500 since the 16th, not just last week. i got screwed by it as well, looking back at it now, i probably jumped in because i saw majorly oversold stoch for several days and the first sign of a green bar, so jumped in too soon and didnt wait for confirmation.

    i got screwed a few times by stoplosses, so now if i set one i make sure its big enough to hold any temporary swings the wrong way, i wouldnt go more than 100 pips though, i might use more like 50 from now on, im thinking if its going to go 100 pips the wrong way, other than due to a news event, then theres a good chance itll keep going for a while longer.

  18. I don’t think 100 pip stop losses are even large enough… that’s the problem with stop losses. They need to be wide enough so they don’t get tripped off falsely, but at the same time then they are so large that if it does get hit, you still have a massive loss either way… you’re basically just putting a level on how far down you think it could possibly go, so why have it in the first place?

  19. People like to say in public that they use technical analysis but what they really do in private is quasi-technical analysis really rooted in trendlines using candlestick mostly. This approach is not the classic guru level technical analysis. Most traders do not use technical approach despite what they say to you in public. Once you trade long enough, you’ll realize that all the stuff taught to you in FX 101 type lessons are all garbage. They really are. And regarding taking quick profits and resetting to look for re-entry points; this is the best way to trade and also without stop/loss and trailing stop. Stop/loss is mostly responsible for being stopped out for losses and trailing stop just gives you endless break-evens. Pure waste of your time. Now, most newbies are greedy; that’s why they simply refuse to understand the real beauty of low take profits. And also, you don’t sit and watch the screen. Just set your take profit from get go on your platform. And most, if not all, scalpers, only take a profit of 2-5 PIPs. Usually below 5 PIPs & for less than 15 minutes holds. The real world, real life scalping, not the Forex for Dummies 101 example you read everywhere. You wonder how they make money? If you have to ask this, you are a newbie and you need to learn more. You make money by trading incrementally bigger and bigger lots. Constantly increasing the lots you trade is a must. 50 standard lots times 5 PIPs is a $2,500 profit trade on a standard account. Also, spreads on the most pairs are not that huge nor are they insurmountable. Really, they are quite negligible in my view. Now, I am also on a 100:1 standard account and now I am trading 1.35 lots on my trades @ 10 PIPs take profit setting. And I complete at least 10 trades per day ($1,350 per day). That is a very decent profit in my view. If you want to become a profitable trader, you must throw away the non-security blanket of stop/loss – trailing stop usage. They don’t save you from anything. Losses will happen but they should come on your terms; meaning, you close losing trades manually because you want to, not because you got stopped out before it turned on a dime 5 minutes later to get to a point where you would have profited nicely only if you had no stop/loss on it.

  20. It would be more prudent to take that immediate profit at 20 PIPs rather than set a trailing stop. And it bears repeating since most people don’t seem to understand… floating open trades are not losses even if they are in the negative $400+ range. Prices move up and down, it never goes up and up only or down and down only. Only question is can your stomach and your margin handle the drawdown or not. But do not justify your stop/loss loving by saying you minimized your losses. You can only say that if you are making a lot of money but I have yet to meet a truly profitable trader who clutch to stop/loss usage.

  21. ok back to my original point about watching the screen all day. you cant make 10 trades a day without being able to watch the screen and pick trades for a good portion of it, people with normal day jobs cant do this, they have no choice but to set up trades and go to work, possibly check it occasionally while at work and thats it. which then brings in the need for a stop loss, since you cant watch it you may come back to a huge deficit at the end of the day. also means people cant make 10 trades a day, they have to make one or two and go for bigger pips instead (which may infact be why so many fail).

    yes things go up and down, but there is always a very real chance that it doesnt go back in the right direction (into profit) for a very long time, by which time you would have had so many costs in terms of rollovers that it wouldnt be worth it anyway. this is even more relevant lately with various currencies hitting all time highs, it may be years if ever before they get that high again, how long can you wait?

    yes stop losses will kill you if they are too small but take audusd for example, in 2 weeks its dropped 500 pips, if you had kept that open and are now 500 pips down from break even, what are your chances of getting back there any time soon? yes it could go back up 500 pips, but with aud looking like its going downhill, and usd showing the odd small sign of recovery, the chances are probably fairly small. now if you had a 100 pip stop loss, you would be 100 pips down, but 10 trades or less, even with a 10 pip profit would get you back up there in less than a day, with no further risk of loss on that trade, and no rollover costs to deal with.

    i realise that 99% of the stuff you read about forex trading is a load of crap, and the last week or so ive noticed the more things i read, the more things i can pick holes in as being complete rubbish. what i havent managed to work out yet is which bits are the useful ones and where to go to find these bits.

    back to trailing stops. dont you think its better to grab say a 20 pip profit, then move your stop up to 10 pips profit, and let it trail from there, whatever happens happens? many times you would gain much more profit from the trade than closing it at 20, save yourself from another 5 pip spread payment, and at the very least you are guaranteed that 10 pips minimum? im trying to work out a reason NOT to do that because it makes perfect sense to me. it guarantees those 10 pips and gives a great chance of getting much more. usually my problem is i dont even get 10 pips before it reverses on me hehe.

    $1350 a day would do me nicely if i could pick my trades well enough to consistently win.

    out of interest what is your rough % success rate with your trades? because im suspecting its very high and with a very high percent success rate, you probably wouldnt need or worry about a stop loss as you have a lot of confidence in its success, even more so if you only go for 10 pip profit.

    my task right now is to take the $38 that is left in my account and make something meaningful from it. in my view if i can take that and bring it back to say $500 then i would view myself as successful enough to fund the account further (i have plenty of funds to put in but im not riskig it until i can pick trades well enough to win consistently), confident of not losing it all (again).

  22. damn did i write all that πŸ˜›

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